PAPERNO-GOTape, not grid
Is 30% even in the prices?
Grid hunt already peaked at +1.6%/month. This page drops the grid and asks the tape: 1× buy-hold, 3× buy-hold (the leverage cap), and a frozen monthly momentum rotator. Geometric 30% on holdout is the bar — a single lucky month is not.
2026-09-05T09:03:52Z
Eligible
56
99 listed now
1× geo 30%
0
full-history holdout
3× geo 30%
0
same names, 3× isolated
3× liquidated
55/56
holdout tape
1× ≥ 8%
0
paper bar
Frozen mom OOS
+1.48%
mom_ls_l20_k3
Mom in-sample
+8.96%
development, not tradable
Fishing mom
+7.38%
peeked holdout
Read this first
- 30% geometric monthly on holdout is the aim. One lucky +30% month is not that number.
- 3× buy-hold is the leverage cap, not a bot. Funding at 1 bp/8h is a real drag (~0.9%/mo at 1×, ~2.7%/mo at 3× if always long).
- Momentum freeze is development-only. Fishing momentum is peeked holdout and is not a discovery.
- Survivorship: dead coins are absent, so long-only drift is overstated.
- Grid family already scanned: fishing ceiling +1.6%/mo. This page is the tape and a rotator, not another grid fit.
Best eligible 1× holdout is TRX at −0.27%/mo. Lucky months on full-history names: 24. All listings including short history: 76. Best single month AXS 2026-01 +108.64% — one month, not a 30% machine.
Momentum freeze (development)
Long-short monthly rotator. Chosen by geo monthly with DD ≤ 25%. Then holdout.
| Config | Dev /mo | DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| mom_ls_l20_k3 | +8.96% | −14.06% | +261.69% |
| mom_ls_l60_k5 | +8.16% | −4.78% | +224.07% |
| mom_ls_l10_k3 | +8.13% | −16.57% | +222.60% |
| mom_ls_l10_k5 | +7.12% | −16.40% | +180.29% |
| mom_ls_l10_k10 | +7.06% | −5.52% | +177.75% |
| mom_ls_l20_k5 | +6.68% | −12.68% | +163.46% |
| mom_ls_l5_k5 | +6.64% | −12.16% | +161.88% |
| mom_ls_l5_k10 | +6.12% | −8.25% | +143.47% |
Frozen mom_ls_l20_k3 holdout +1.48%/mo, DD −21.31%, net +17.82%. In-sample was +8.96% — it did not travel.
Fishing momentum — not a result
Best holdout print in the rotator grid. Still not 30%.
| Config | Holdout /mo | DD | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| mom_ls_l10_k3 | +7.38% | −5.75% | +120.97% |
| mom_ls_l5_k5 | +6.12% | −4.11% | +93.81% |
| mom_ls_l5_k3 | +5.02% | −0.88% | +72.53% |
| mom_ls_l20_k5 | +4.77% | −12.29% | +68.04% |
| mom_ls_l10_k5 | +4.61% | −8.21% | +65.19% |
| mom_ls_l5_k10 | +4.08% | −5.40% | +56.06% |
| mom_ls_l10_k10 | +3.78% | −2.28% | +51.15% |
| mom_ls_l20_k10 | +3.03% | −3.90% | +39.38% |
Buy-hold leaderboard
Default: names with development + holdout coverage. Short listings are the lottery, not the test.
| Name | 1× /mo | 1× DD | 3× /mo | 3× DD | Lucky mo | Dev 1× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRX TRON | −0.27% | −22.39% | −4.05% | −74.93% | 0 | +5.46% |
NEAR Near Protocol | −2.15% | −68.73% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −2.72% |
UNI Uniswap | −2.39% | −74.37% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −1.60% |
BNB BNB | −3.13% | −58.17% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +4.48% |
BTC Bitcoin | −3.52% | −52.97% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +4.26% |
ETH Ethereum | −5.01% | −66.53% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −1.69% |
ICP Internet Computer | −5.20% | −77.43% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −5.78% |
LINK Chainlink | −5.79% | −69.20% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −0.94% |
CRV Curve DAO Token | −6.49% | −76.79% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −1.50% |
XRP XRP | −6.50% | −67.33% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +8.33% |
JUP Jupiter Exchange Token | −6.61% | −70.98% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −2.96% |
SOL Solana | −6.76% | −73.51% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +0.83% |
AR Arweave | −6.77% | −80.64% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −3.11% |
AAVE Aave | −6.80% | −79.50% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +2.14% |
COMP Compound | −6.86% | −65.42% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −2.88% |
XLM Stellar | −6.94% | −64.89% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +4.73% |
LTC Litecoin | −7.05% | −67.49% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +0.70% |
STX Stacks | −7.16% | −80.93% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −6.23% |
AXS Axie Infinity | −7.47% | −72.04% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −7.40% |
SHIB Shiba Inu | −7.48% | −68.00% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +0.99% |
BCH Bitcoin Cash | −7.62% | −70.90% | liq | −106.25% | 0 | +0.83% |
ALGO Algorand | −7.69% | −66.25% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −1.88% |
ETHFI Ether.fi | −8.12% | −84.29% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −10.65% |
ETC Ethereum Classic | −8.32% | −69.72% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −1.94% |
INJ Injective Protocol | −8.34% | −79.54% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −9.63% |
ATOM Cosmos | −8.71% | −71.68% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −6.09% |
PEPE Pepe | −8.83% | −77.26% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +11.54% |
HBAR Hedera Hashgraph | −8.97% | −71.93% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +3.93% |
EGLD MultiversX (Elrond) | −9.08% | −82.38% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −9.47% |
NEO NEO | −9.10% | −74.08% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −6.35% |
PYTH Pyth Network | −9.13% | −81.13% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −6.11% |
DOGE Dogecoin | −9.24% | −74.04% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +4.04% |
FIL Filecoin | −9.45% | −81.24% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −6.48% |
XTZ Tezos | −9.51% | −72.96% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −3.43% |
LDO Lido DAO | −9.53% | −81.56% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −7.73% |
CFX Conflux Network | −9.78% | −74.73% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −5.74% |
CHZ Chiliz | −10.17% | −80.83% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −4.94% |
ARB Arbitrum | −10.21% | −84.07% | liq | −100.00% | 2 | −10.53% |
FLOKI Floki Inu | −10.34% | −80.73% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +3.18% |
WLD Worldcoin | −10.44% | −82.73% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −9.82% |
RAY Raydium | −10.61% | −81.72% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +1.72% |
CRO Cronos | −10.99% | −78.79% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −0.10% |
ENS Ethereum Name Service | −11.00% | −82.43% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | +2.96% |
WIF dogwifhat | −11.21% | −83.13% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −11.79% |
ADA Cardano | −11.79% | −83.52% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +0.40% |
TIA Celestia | −11.92% | −81.59% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −9.64% |
AVAX Avalanche | −12.02% | −81.19% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −5.22% |
MANA Decentraland | −12.05% | −81.97% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −5.15% |
THETA THETA | −12.06% | −84.09% | liq | −100.00% | 1 | −3.34% |
IOTA IOTA | −12.78% | −83.47% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −4.07% |
SUI Sui | −12.85% | −82.02% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | +6.82% |
GRT The Graph | −13.53% | −85.14% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −5.87% |
STRK Starknet | −14.98% | −90.97% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −15.76% |
BONK Bonk | −15.14% | −89.72% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −0.50% |
OP Optimism | −16.22% | −89.18% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −10.69% |
APT Aptos | −17.43% | −90.52% | liq | −100.00% | 0 | −4.15% |
Grid results live on Hunt and Universe. Same holdout, same costs, same NO-GO.