{ "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T11:33:45.844Z", "asOfMs": 1788566400000, "question": "Astra S_t: universe crash-breadth. Freeze c on development. Does it separate Oct 15–16 from Nov 4 without using holdout labels?", "frozenC": 1, "devScan": [ { "c": 0.05, "geo": -0.1193, "dd": 0.8903, "nFlat": 181 }, { "c": 0.08, "geo": -0.0904, "dd": 0.9074, "nFlat": 148 }, { "c": 0.1, "geo": -0.0955, "dd": 0.9122, "nFlat": 130 }, { "c": 0.12, "geo": -0.073, "dd": 0.9184, "nFlat": 121 }, { "c": 0.15, "geo": -0.0715, "dd": 0.9078, "nFlat": 113 }, { "c": 0.2, "geo": -0.0719, "dd": 0.9083, "nFlat": 96 }, { "c": 0.25, "geo": -0.09, "dd": 0.9318, "nFlat": 84 }, { "c": 0.3, "geo": -0.0953, "dd": 0.9318, "nFlat": 77 }, { "c": 0.4, "geo": -0.1115, "dd": 0.9282, "nFlat": 65 }, { "c": 1, "geo": 0.0111, "dd": 0.8351, "nFlat": 0 } ], "geoReconcile": { "timeWeightedGeo": 0.3013, "holdoutNet": 17.7806, "nListedMonths": 12, "listedCompound": 17.7811, "listedGeoPerMonth": 0.2769, "elapsedMonths": 11.1376, "note": "30.1% is (1+net)^(1/elapsed_30.4375d_months)-1. Twelve calendar prints compound at ~27.8% if Sep is counted as a full month." }, "walk": { "geo": 0.2386, "net": 9.8364, "picks": [ { "from": "2025-10-01", "c": 0.25, "testGeo": 0.0158 }, { "from": "2025-12-30", "c": 1, "testGeo": 0.0865 }, { "from": "2026-03-30", "c": 1, "testGeo": 0.6168 }, { "from": "2026-06-28", "c": 1, "testGeo": 0.3443 } ] }, "sTape": [ { "day": "2025-10-01", "S": 0.0357, "S15": 0.0179, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-02", "S": 0, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-03", "S": 0.0179, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-04", "S": 0, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-05", "S": 0.1964, "S15": 0.0179, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-06", "S": 0.0179, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-07", "S": 0, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-08", "S": 0.8393, "S15": 0.5536, "S2": 0.2143, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-09", "S": 0, "S15": 0, "S2": 0, "n": 56 }, { "day": "2025-10-10", "S": 0.2857, "S15": 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