{"generatedAt":"2026-09-07T09:39:13.981Z","frozen":true,"note":"V⊥ preregistered gate falsified: freeze kills November (holdout +9%/DD 23%). Walk picks off. Joint 30%/35% still open and unmet. Best AIM remains skip-57 ×1.9 ± corr 0.6 / BTC hedge, DD 45–52%.","asOfMs":1788566400000,"sourceGeneratedAt":"2026-09-05T14:55:05.215Z","rules":[{"id":"astra-grail-2026-09-07","title":"Grail ceiling — Grossman-Zhou 15% cushion on this GBM","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Not a search. Homogeneous GBM from ATM beta. Holdout unused. PAPER.","summary":"Unconstrained Kelly +1.02%/mo at 0.64x book. DD15% cushion g*=+0.153%/mo at 0.096x peak. Need drawdown alpha=25.8 for 30% — not a probability. Two-exit sleeve with cooldown IS +83.2%/mo. AIM no. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"grossman-zhou","alpha":0.15,"nNames":40,"beta":0.32281545487923546,"rho":0.5196078640043255},"results":{"gUMo":0.01021327594942445,"gDDMo":0.0015253831452606281,"gMoSleeveIs":0.832499250161022,"gMoSleeveHo":0.4527084875784415,"alphaNeedFor30":25.819511392586882},"now":[]},{"id":"astra-u-2026-09-07","title":"Astra û — TPs per abort event, not per leg","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Not a search. Exact Aether FSM. Expand IS. Holdout check. PAPER.","summary":"Aether two-exit: all-TP reset IS 10624 @ +9.5% e0 vs abort 8139 @ -5.9%, mix +2.77%/ep. û_IS=2.25 (abort-only 0.12). GBM E[N]=1.51 need 2.46 — wrong FSM. Empty aborts 10814. ρ=0.52. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"aether-r44","step":0.0025,"levels":3,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40},"results":{"uHatIs":2.247327681533358,"uHatHo":1.8509067565398813,"uHatAbortOnlyIs":0.11795060818282345,"uHatAbortOnlyHo":0.10576151500561708,"abortEventsIs":8139,"abortEventsHo":6231,"abortEmptyIs":10814,"abortEmptyHo":5361,"allTpResetsIs":10624,"allTpResetsHo":6789,"meanAbortLegsIs":1.8536675267231846,"meanAbortLegsHo":1.869041887337506,"tpNIs":18291,"tpNHo":11533,"mixRIs":0.027748776974567842,"mixRHo":0.01669073149106264,"eN0":0.7525635781955532,"eN1":0.5019117275884166,"eN2":0.25105725612112384,"eNtot":1.5055325619050937,"needEN":2.461414191642306,"gTilde":-0.039785394235852575,"eRdollar":-0.033389944244031994,"beta":0.32281545487923546,"rho":0.5196078640043255,"sigBookEqCorr":0.12422152053451839,"sigBookWrong":0.09146947032145608,"meanRAbortIs":-0.05947181591738223,"meanRAllTpIs":0.09456809225577846,"meanRAbortHo":-0.06061981638535713,"meanRAllTpHo":0.08764698776120133,"verdict":"Aether is two episode types, not recycle-until-abort. IS mix R=2.77%/ep (all-TP 10624 @ 9.5%, abort 8139 @ -5.9%). û=2.247 < need 2.461 so Astra multiplicative g<0 — that model is the wrong FSM (center dies on all-TP). Empty aborts IS 10814 are same-bar dumps with 0 legs. ρ=0.520. PAPER."},"now":[]},{"id":"math-bounds-2026-09-07","title":"Closed-form bounds — close-to-close cannot print 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Not a search. Fit on expand IS. Holdout only checks the formula. Frozen r44. PAPER.","summary":"GBM ATM p=42.9% ≈ emp IS 42.0% / HO 41.3%. ATM E[R] -0.74%/cycle. N_eff=3.47/40. Kelly* +0.19%/mo at 0.25×; 15× ruin. Indep 3-leg IS E[R]=-2.64% vs bary -2.67% (gap 0.03pp) — does not explain Aether +54%. Magdon-Ismail: 15× book P(ever 15% DD)=99%. AIM no. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"closed-form","step":0.0025,"levels":3,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40,"commit":"d40a3a29cc54f837"},"results":{"pGbm":0.4294072908729638,"pEmpIs":0.41996956071856617,"pEmpHo":0.4127069130740665,"eRAtmGbm":-0.007373413559689963,"nEff":3.469300733389236,"kellyStarMo":0.0019469373449993999,"kelly15Mo":-1,"eRIndepIs":-0.026449947634340994,"eRBaryIs":-0.026738921679324627,"gapIs":0.00028897404498363227,"pEverHaltBook15x":0.9857559997822483,"pEverHaltAether":0.04652570429683159},"now":[]},{"id":"jesse-perleg-2026-09-07","title":"Jesse per-leg Isolated — does not close the 54% gap","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Not a search. Frozen r44 and s20. Holdout unused for selection.","summary":"Split 1/3 capital: r44 +12.3% / $36.6k (k=0 dies, $349 of $3.3k); s20 +15.8% / $51.4k. Shared-cash 3-pos: r44 -10% / $3.1k / DD 78%; s20 -8.6%. Jesse 1-pos stays best (+18.3% / +21.4%). Aether +54% is fill/path, not independent legs. AIM no. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"jesse-3.1.1-perleg","step":0.0025,"levels":3,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40},"results":{"splitR44":{"geoMonthly":0.1234,"maxDd":0.2374,"end":36557.54},"splitS20":{"geoMonthly":0.1584,"maxDd":0.1657,"end":51429.05},"sharedR44":{"geoMonthly":-0.1003,"maxDd":0.7808,"end":3079.81},"sharedS20":{"geoMonthly":-0.0865,"end":3648.98},"jesseOnePosR44":{"geoMonthly":0.1834,"end":65231.84},"aetherR44":{"geoMonthly":0.5355,"end":1186609}},"now":[]},{"id":"halt15-r44-2026-09-07","title":"15% halt overlay — Aether r44 holdout +54% dies Jan 24","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Not a search. Flatten and stay cash on frozen r44 equity when engine DD hits 15%. Holdout unused for selection.","summary":"Aether holdout +53.6% / $1.19M → halt 2026-01-24 at $37,870, geo +12.7%. Full tape dies 2023-10-10 at $8,919 (week 2). Jesse r44 weekly DD 9% and s20 5.3% never trip. AIM with the research-profile halt is no. PAPER.","params":{"halt":0.15,"rule":"r44","flatten":"stay-cash"},"results":{"aetherHoldout":{"geoNoHalt":0.5355,"endNoHalt":1186609,"geoHalt":0.1274,"endHalt":37869.58,"haltDay":"2026-01-24","haltDd":0.1638},"aetherFull":{"haltDay":"2023-10-10","haltEq":8918.93,"geoHalt":-0.0033},"jesseWeeklyWouldHalt":false,"aimWithHalt":false},"now":[]},{"id":"jesse-opt-s20-2026-09-07","title":"Jesse search freeze s20 — IS +32%, holdout +21%, not AIM","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"12 configs on Jesse expand IS. Freeze max IS geo, DD<45%. Val then holdout once. Holdout unused for selection.","summary":"Freeze step 0.20% / 3 legs / TP 1% / 15× / k=40. IS +31.8% DD 32% (AIM on IS). Val +15.5%. Holdout +21.4% DD 5% weekly, $10k→$86,356. Beats r44-on-Jesse +18.3% / $65k. Three-window plus, AIM 30% no. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"jesse-3.1.1","step":0.002,"levels":3,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.3175,"maxDd":0.3239},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.155,"maxDd":0.0887},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2136,"maxDd":0.0531,"end":86355.68}},"now":[]},{"id":"jesse-round44-2026-09-07","title":"Jesse 3.1.1 ran Round 44 — holdout +18%/mo, not AIM","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Third-party engine. Frozen Round 44 params. Holdout unused for selection. Weekly chunks work around Isolated leftover-order leak.","summary":"Jesse 3.1.1, 40 isolated sleeves, OKX 1H→1m. $10k → $65,232, geo +18.3%/mo, weekly DD 9%, 13,834 trades, WR 53%, 3/40 lost. Aether freeze was +53.6%/DD 23% on the same window. AIM 30% is not confirmed on Jesse. PAPER.","params":{"engine":"jesse-3.1.1","step":0.0025,"levels":3,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40,"chunk":"7d","timeframe":"1m"},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1834,"maxDd":0.0901,"end":65231.84,"net":5.5232,"trades":13834,"winRate":0.5281},"aetherHoldout":{"geoMonthly":0.5355,"maxDd":0.2332,"end":1186609}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-50r-r44-2026-09-06","title":"50 rounds: freeze round 44 — 40 names ×15, holdout +54%","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Seeded 50-round random search. Freeze on expanded IS Oct 2023–Apr 2025. Holdout unused for selection.","summary":"Round 44: step 0.25%, 3 legs, TP 1%, 15×, k=40. Expand +103% / val +70% / ho +54% DD 23%. Walk 8/8 +, mean +70%. Old 12×/k50 ho +38% DD 28%. $10k holdout → $1,186,609. 7/8 OOS-top still AIM. 15× is the upgrade cost.","params":{"step":0.0025,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":15,"nNames":40},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":1.0321},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.7009},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.5355,"maxDd":0.2332}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-expand-2026-09-06","title":"Winner holds on expanded IS (Oct 2023) and 8/8 walk tests","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"IS expanded 2023-10-01→2025-04-01. 56 configs re-searched. Holdout unused for selection.","summary":"Winner 3-leg TP1% k50×12: expand IS +88% / val +48% / ho +38% / full +58% (DD 54%). Walk 8/8 folds +, mean +57%. New freeze still 4-leg overfit (ho +13%). $10k full tape → $106,479,052,852.","params":{"rule":{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k50","step":0.003,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":12,"nNames":50},"expand":{"start":"2023-10-01","end":"2025-04-01"}},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.8811},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.478},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.377,"maxDd":0.2798},"full":{"geoMonthly":0.5845,"maxDd":0.5407}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-opt50-2026-09-06","title":"Top-50 neighborhood: max-IS freeze overfits; 3-leg 1% stays AIM","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"78 configs. Freeze = max development geo, DD<45%, ≥90% TPs in 24h.","summary":"Freeze s30_n4_m1_tp120_x12_k50: IS +99% / ho +13% DD 53% — not 30%. Original 3-leg TP 1% k50 ×12 still AIM ho +38% DD 28%. Plateau: k40–56, TP 1–1.2%, 3 legs. 4th leg is the overfit. Peeked extra step 0.2%/4-leg TP 1% ho +42% DD 16% is not a freeze.","params":{"freeze":{"step":0.003,"levels":4,"mart":1,"tp":0.012,"lev":12,"nNames":50,"id":"s30_n4_m1_tp120_x12_k50"},"keep":{"step":0.003,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":12,"nNames":50,"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k50"}},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.9439},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.478},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.377,"maxDd":0.2798}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-top50-x12-2026-09-06","title":"AIM daily-TP grid — top 50 ×12","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"1H per-leg TP 1%, step 0.3%, 3 equal legs, abort on, 50 isolated eligible sleeves, 12×. Path-safe next hour.","summary":"Three-window AIM. Dev +94% / val +48% / holdout +38%, DD 28%. Mean TP 2.7h, 99% same day, cycle WR 55%. Same 12× on 15 names was holdout +2% (overfit). 50×8: holdout +22% DD 19%, not 30%. $10k→~$353k holdout.","params":{"step":0.003,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":12,"nNames":50,"path":"tp-next-1h"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.9439},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.478},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.377,"maxDd":0.2798},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":0.681},{"month":"2025-11","ret":0.495},{"month":"2025-12","ret":0.42},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.5563},{"month":"2026-02","ret":0.329},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.1099},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.5745},{"month":"2026-05","ret":0.371},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.8749},{"month":"2026-07","ret":0.026},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.2412},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.0417}]},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-30-hunt-2026-09-06","title":"Fast-grid 30% hunt — 6 IS hits, 0 holdout hits","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"1H per-leg TP, lev 5–12×. Freeze on development. Peeked holdout of IS-AIM listed only as a class test.","summary":"27 configs. 6 print ≥30% on development (all 8–12×). Freeze s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k15: IS +64% / val +4.4% / holdout +2.3%, DD 54%. None of the 6 IS-AIM books hit 30% holdout (best peeked s30_n3_m1_tp200_x12_k15 +17.8%). Daily 1% TP sells the ignition that makes 30%. Class NO-GO for 30%.","params":{"frozen":{"step":0.003,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":12,"nNames":15,"ratchet":false,"skip57":false,"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k15"},"oosAimDev":[{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k15","development":0.6356,"validation":0.0444,"holdout":0.0232,"holdoutDd":0.5414,"three":true,"holdoutAim":false},{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp200_x12_k15","development":0.5206,"validation":0.2305,"holdout":0.1778,"holdoutDd":0.4331,"three":true,"holdoutAim":false},{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x12_k8","development":0.4064,"validation":-0.0263,"holdout":-0.0475,"holdoutDd":0.7321,"three":false,"holdoutAim":false},{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp200_x12_k8","development":0.3983,"validation":-0.0157,"holdout":0.0138,"holdoutDd":0.5049,"three":false,"holdoutAim":false},{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp100_x8_k15","development":0.3563,"validation":0.0347,"holdout":0.0124,"holdoutDd":0.4097,"three":true,"holdoutAim":false},{"id":"s30_n3_m1_tp200_x8_k15","development":0.3061,"validation":0.1303,"holdout":0.0975,"holdoutDd":0.2611,"three":true,"holdoutAim":false}]},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.6356},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.0444},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.0232,"maxDd":0.5414}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-daily-2026-09-06","title":"Daily-TP 1H grid — 98% of TPs same day, PAPER not 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"keep","href":"/keep","label":"Per-leg TP (not basket). 15 isolated names. Mandatory abort. Path-safe next-hour TP.","summary":"111 configs. Freeze d_s30_n3_m1_tp100_x3_k15: step 0.3%, 3 equal legs, TP 1%, 3×. Dev +9.1% / val +1.5% / holdout +0.2%, DD 19%. Mean TP 4.2h, 98% inside 24h, WR 56%. Three-window plus, not AIM. $10k→~$10.2k holdout. This is the fast grid, not the rotator.","params":{"step":0.003,"levels":3,"mart":1,"tp":0.01,"lev":3,"nNames":15,"halt":0,"id":"d_s30_n3_m1_tp100_x3_k15"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0911},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.0148},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.0016,"maxDd":0.1928},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":0.0471},{"month":"2025-11","ret":0.009},{"month":"2025-12","ret":0.0115},{"month":"2026-01","ret":-0.0515},{"month":"2026-02","ret":0.0345},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0758},{"month":"2026-04","ret":-0.0018},{"month":"2026-05","ret":0.0393},{"month":"2026-06","ret":-0.0421},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.0053},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.0403},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.0219}]},"now":[]},{"id":"astra-I-II-III-2026-09-06","title":"Astra I–III: no Heisenberg ban; grid clock cannot flip g; 1D monotone already closed","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Theorems on the tape, not a new gate.","summary":"I: (30%, 35% DD) is not a forbidden rectangle for all predictable a_t; sign-schedule exists in a pre-fixed finite family; G and D commute. Does not give an ex-ante selector. II: FOSD of V⊥/S on ignition vs Jan–Apr is unproven; monotone 1D already closed by certificate B. III: γ_grid=g/E[C]; measured g<0 so any clock-only Δ stays negative. Crossing p<u/(u+v)≈11.5% vs 14%. Grid search remains stopped. Paper stays skip-57 ×1.9.","params":{"gridCrossing":"p < 0.115 given u/v=0.13","I":"no universal ban","II":"FOSD not shown","III":"renewal-reward"},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013,"maxDd":0.5237}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-uv-2026-09-06","title":"Astra payoff-space: all four grids g<0","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"u=E[log(1+R)|TP], v=-E[log(1+R)|abort], g=(1-p)u-pv. Need u/v > p/(1-p).","summary":"No uniform no-go without μ≤0 (crypto drift can be positive). Empirical: freeze p=14% u/v=0.13 need 0.16, TP +0.57% vs abort −4.4%. NADIR-like p=27% u/v=0.24 need 0.38. Equal-size worse. Winners underdeploy, aborts full martingale. Grid search on this tape stops.","params":{"rows":[{"id":"freeze_s15_n7_m2_tp25_x2","dev":{"geo":-0.0189,"dd":0.2566,"p":0.1411,"nTp":10320,"nAb":1696,"meanRtp":0.0057,"meanRab":-0.044,"u":0.0056,"v":0.045,"g":-0.0015,"uOverV":0.1256,"needUv":0.1643,"pass":false},"ho":{"geo":-0.0081,"dd":0.1427,"p":0.1145,"nTp":6890,"nAb":891,"meanRtp":0.005,"meanRab":-0.0441,"u":0.005,"v":0.0451,"g":-0.0008,"uOverV":0.11,"needUv":0.1293,"pass":false}},{"id":"nadirlike_s75_n7_m2_tp15_x3","dev":{"geo":-0.0496,"dd":0.5383,"p":0.2733,"nTp":10639,"nAb":4001,"meanRtp":0.0085,"meanRab":-0.0337,"u":0.0084,"v":0.0342,"g":-0.0033,"uOverV":0.2441,"needUv":0.3761,"pass":false},"ho":{"geo":-0.0382,"dd":0.3646,"p":0.218,"nTp":8052,"nAb":2245,"meanRtp":0.0065,"meanRab":-0.0341,"u":0.0065,"v":0.0347,"g":-0.0025,"uOverV":0.1861,"needUv":0.2788,"pass":false}},{"id":"equal_s10_n5_m1_tp15_x2","dev":{"geo":-0.0998,"dd":0.7978,"p":0.332,"nTp":9470,"nAb":4707,"meanRtp":0.0174,"meanRab":-0.054,"u":0.0171,"v":0.0556,"g":-0.007,"uOverV":0.3074,"needUv":0.497,"pass":false},"ho":{"geo":-0.0888,"dd":0.6656,"p":0.2901,"nTp":6995,"nAb":2858,"meanRtp":0.0145,"meanRab":-0.0555,"u":0.0143,"v":0.0571,"g":-0.0064,"uOverV":0.2513,"needUv":0.4086,"pass":false}},{"id":"tight_s15_n4_m1_tp25_x2","dev":{"geo":-0.085,"dd":0.7462,"p":0.3531,"nTp":8022,"nAb":4378,"meanRtp":0.0261,"meanRab":-0.0655,"u":0.0257,"v":0.0678,"g":-0.0073,"uOverV":0.3788,"needUv":0.5457,"pass":false},"ho":{"geo":-0.0863,"dd":0.6642,"p":0.3392,"nTp":5383,"nAb":2763,"meanRtp":0.024,"meanRab":-0.0661,"u":0.0237,"v":0.0685,"g":-0.0076,"uOverV":0.3459,"needUv":0.5133,"pass":false}}]},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":-0.0189},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.0081}},"now":[]},{"id":"grid-opt-2026-09-06","title":"Path-safe multi-grid — 223 configs, all REJECT on development","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"4h TP-next (no same-bar TP). Cycle abort always on. Isolated 56 sleeves. Freeze = best IS log-growth among DD<60%.","summary":"223 development configs (step/levels/martingale/TP/lev). Best freeze s150_n7_m2_tp250_x2_iso: IS -3.3% / val -1.9% / holdout -2.1%, DD 25%, winrate 87%, abort 13%. Halt-15 dies (~−1%/mo). Dump-arm slots DD 99%. Same-bar NADIR +111% remains an artifact. Mandatory stop + martingale does not print 30% on this book.","params":{"step":0.015,"levels":7,"mart":2,"tp":0.025,"lev":2,"slots":8,"isolated":true,"halt":0,"armDump":false,"cdAbort":8,"id":"s150_n7_m2_tp250_x2_iso"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":-0.0326},"validation":{"geoMonthly":-0.0186},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.0205,"maxDd":0.2467},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.0492},{"month":"2025-11","ret":-0.0483},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.006},{"month":"2026-01","ret":-0.0586},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.0497},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.031},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.0391},{"month":"2026-05","ret":-0.0028},{"month":"2026-06","ret":-0.0148},{"month":"2026-07","ret":0.0142},{"month":"2026-08","ret":-0.0205},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.0039}]},"now":[]},{"id":"k-sweep-2026-09-06","title":"k=50 vs k=5 — gate binds, not K","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same skip-57 ×1.9 eligible. k is a cap; days with ≥50 names passing r3≥20% and r30<57% ≈ 0.","summary":"Eligible n=56. k=5: holdout +30.1% / DD 52% / avg names 0.49. k=50: +28.1% / DD 55% / avg names 0.79 — identical to k=99. November still ~+248%. Diversifying K does not cut DD because most days the book already has 0–2 names. Not a new AIM.","params":{"ks":[{"k":1,"dev":-0.022,"val":0.3876,"ho":0.1962,"dd":0.6063,"avgN":0.2412},{"k":3,"dev":0.0257,"val":0.2643,"ho":0.2758,"dd":0.5243,"avgN":0.4029},{"k":5,"dev":0.0111,"val":0.2539,"ho":0.3013,"dd":0.5237,"avgN":0.4912},{"k":10,"dev":0.0097,"val":0.256,"ho":0.2831,"dd":0.5453,"avgN":0.6088},{"k":20,"dev":0.0161,"val":0.2605,"ho":0.2831,"dd":0.5453,"avgN":0.7059},{"k":50,"dev":0.0163,"val":0.2573,"ho":0.2814,"dd":0.5453,"avgN":0.7882},{"k":99,"dev":0.0163,"val":0.2573,"ho":0.2814,"dd":0.5453,"avgN":0.7882}]},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0163},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2573},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2814,"maxDd":0.5453}},"now":[]},{"id":"cert-b-2026-09-06","title":"Astra B certificate — I is Jan 28–Apr 2, not October","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Exhaustive 1D/2D thresholds on holdout daily tape. Retrospective class test, not a freeze.","summary":"Empty-oracle ruled out (sign oracle passes; skip-Oct geo +35.1% but sum_I=0 because I is not October). Max DD 52.4% is 2026-01-28 → 2026-04-02. 1D S/V⊥/n/corr: M < h whenever sum_I ≥ b. BTC-30d retrospective M=+0.014 ≥ h (dir gt c=0.0026) — holdout certificate, not development-selected. 2D (n,V⊥) M=+0.060. Does not authorize a new gate.","params":{"H":-0.0111,"B":0.3116,"I":{"peakDay":"2026-01-28","troughDay":"2026-04-02","nDays":65,"peakEq":48653.5061,"troughEq":23175.7831},"oneD":[{"family":"S","M":-0.3282,"failsGrowth":true},{"family":"Vperp","M":-0.3045,"failsGrowth":true},{"family":"n","M":-2.167,"failsGrowth":true},{"family":"corr","M":null,"failsGrowth":true},{"family":"btc30","M":0.0143,"failsGrowth":false}],"twoD":{"nMasks":2016,"nMeetB":581,"M":0.0605,"failsGrowth":false,"best":{"dir":"nle4_vlt","c":0.1183,"nFlat":54,"sumI":0.6776,"sumH":0.0605}}},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013,"maxDd":0.5237}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave16-vperp-2026-09-06","title":"Astra V⊥ residual-vol — falsified for 30%/35%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Preregistered C={0.04,0.06,0.08,0.10,off}. Development max log-growth, ties → larger c. Walk 180/90 continuous HWM.","summary":"Freeze c=0.08: IS +12.6% (vs +1.1% off) / val +14.8% / holdout +9.2%, DD 23%, Oct −4.6%, Nov 0%, May +31% not +117%. Walk: all four folds pick off → +30.1% / DD 52%. Nov 3–5 V⊥=0.12–0.19 > Oct 14 V⊥=0.089 — alt ignition is the high-residual state, Astra’s stated falsifier. Joint 30%∧DD≤35% fails. No runner-up.","params":{"C":[0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,"off"],"frozenC":0.08,"folds":[{"from":"2025-10-01","to":"2025-12-30","c":"off","trainLog":1.3602},{"from":"2025-12-30","to":"2026-03-30","c":"off","trainLog":1.8528},{"from":"2026-03-30","to":"2026-06-28","c":"off","trainLog":0.8416},{"from":"2026-06-28","to":"2026-09-05","c":"off","trainLog":1.6658}],"tapeKey":[{"day":"2025-10-14","n":5,"v":0.0894,"s57":true},{"day":"2025-10-15","n":5,"v":0.0866,"s57":true},{"day":"2025-10-16","n":0,"v":0,"s57":false},{"day":"2025-10-22","n":0,"v":0,"s57":false},{"day":"2025-11-03","n":1,"v":0.1225,"s57":true},{"day":"2025-11-04","n":1,"v":0.1223,"s57":true},{"day":"2025-11-05","n":1,"v":0.1923,"s57":true}]},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.1256},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.1483},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.0917,"maxDd":0.2279},"walk":{"geoMonthly":0.3013,"maxDd":0.5237},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.0456},{"month":"2025-11","ret":0},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.1815},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.3551},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2219},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0067},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.6181},{"month":"2026-05","ret":0.3136},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.0358},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.1531},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.5343},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.1356}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_corr60_1.9","title":"AIM — skip-57 ×1.9, skip book if 20d corr of names > 0.6","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Development-best corr cap. Fatter IS. October −21% not −34%. Walk of the cutoff +28%.","summary":"Dev +3.85% / val +8.9% / holdout +32.8%, DD 50%, worst month -21.7%. Nov still +240%. Aug cut +68%→+14%. Walk-forward of c +28.0% (first two folds pick never). Honest freeze AIM; rolling cutoff not 30%.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"corrCut":0.6,"corrWindow":20},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0385},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.0893},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3283,"maxDd":0.495},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.2129},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.3978},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.0595},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.6877},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2167},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0067},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.2185},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.4337},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.8763},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.1296},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.1441},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2906}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_allred_1.9","title":"AIM — flatten next day if all holdings red (n≥3)","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Oct 15–16 all-red skip the second day. Nov intact.","summary":"Dev +0.41% / val +26.4% / holdout +31.6%, DD 52%, Oct −25%. Thin IS. DD still 52%.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"allRed":true},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0041},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3164,"maxDd":0.5237}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave15-2026-09-06","title":"Wave 15 — idio dump and name cooldown miss","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Book-minus-universe crash-breadth freeze ≈ never. Cooldown after −8% chops Nov/Jan.","summary":"Idio walk +29.5%. Cool walk +13.8%. Inverse-S does not cut October.","params":{"frozenIdio":0.6,"frozenCool":{"r":0.08,"n":2}},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3283}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave14-st-2026-09-06","title":"Astra S_t REJECT — crash-breadth is backwards on this tape","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"S_t = fraction of eligible universe with daily r < −σ̂_20d. Cutoff frozen on development.","summary":"Development-best c=1 (never use S): every tighter cutoff makes IS negative. Oct 14/15/16 S=0.00/0.07/0.00 — n=5 book dump was idiosyncratic. Nov 4 S=1.00 — universe crash the day before the rip. lag-0 flatten at c=0.20: Nov +95% not +238%, holdout +16%, IS −7%. Walk-forward +24% (first fold picks 0.25, then never). S_t does not separate Oct 15 from Nov 4 in the useful direction.","params":{"frozenC":1,"devScan":[{"c":0.05,"geo":-0.1193,"dd":0.8903,"nFlat":181},{"c":0.08,"geo":-0.0904,"dd":0.9074,"nFlat":148},{"c":0.1,"geo":-0.0955,"dd":0.9122,"nFlat":130},{"c":0.12,"geo":-0.073,"dd":0.9184,"nFlat":121},{"c":0.15,"geo":-0.0715,"dd":0.9078,"nFlat":113},{"c":0.2,"geo":-0.0719,"dd":0.9083,"nFlat":96},{"c":0.25,"geo":-0.09,"dd":0.9318,"nFlat":84},{"c":0.3,"geo":-0.0953,"dd":0.9318,"nFlat":77},{"c":0.4,"geo":-0.1115,"dd":0.9282,"nFlat":65},{"c":1,"geo":0.0111,"dd":0.8351,"nFlat":0}],"walk":{"geo":0.2386,"net":9.8364,"picks":[{"from":"2025-10-01","c":0.25,"testGeo":0.0158},{"from":"2025-12-30","c":1,"testGeo":0.0865},{"from":"2026-03-30","c":1,"testGeo":0.6168},{"from":"2026-06-28","c":1,"testGeo":0.3443}]},"sKey":[{"day":"2025-10-08","S":0.8393,"S15":0.5536,"S2":0.2143,"n":56},{"day":"2025-10-11","S":1,"S15":1,"S2":1,"n":56},{"day":"2025-10-14","S":0,"S15":0,"S2":0,"n":56},{"day":"2025-10-15","S":0.0714,"S15":0,"S2":0,"n":56},{"day":"2025-10-16","S":0,"S15":0,"S2":0,"n":56},{"day":"2025-10-22","S":0,"S15":0,"S2":0,"n":56},{"day":"2025-11-03","S":0,"S15":0,"S2":0,"n":56},{"day":"2025-11-04","S":1,"S15":0.9821,"S2":0.9464,"n":56},{"day":"2025-11-05","S":0.4643,"S15":0.1607,"S2":0.0357,"n":56}]},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013},"walkGeo":0.2386},"now":[]},{"id":"wave14-halt15-2026-09-06","title":"15% peak-to-trough halt = no November","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Account halt at 15% from peak, skip-57 ×1.9.","summary":"Oct hits −18% and dies. Holdout −1.8%. Monthly restart also dies because account DD stays >15% so November never re-enters. 15% halt and 30% geo are incompatible on this tape. Astra was right.","params":{"maxDrawdownHalt":0.15},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.0179}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave14-geo-2026-09-06","title":"Geo 30.1% is time-weighted over 11.14 months, not 12 calendar prints","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"(1+net)^(1/elapsed_30.4375d)-1. Net +17.78×.","summary":"Time-weighted +30.1% over 11.14 months (holdout to 5 Sep). Twelve listed months compound at +27.7%. Astra’s 19.06× came from rounded prints; raw net is 17.78×.","params":{"timeWeightedGeo":0.3013,"holdoutNet":17.7806,"nListedMonths":12,"listedCompound":17.7811,"listedGeoPerMonth":0.2769,"elapsedMonths":11.1376,"note":"30.1% is (1+net)^(1/elapsed_30.4375d_months)-1. Twelve calendar prints compound at ~27.8% if Sep is counted as a full month."},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_h100_1.9","title":"Lowest-DD AIM — skip-57 ×1.9 + 1× short BTC","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Always short 1× BTC against the alt book. Nov is anti-BTC (alts +90% unlev, BTC −17%).","summary":"Dev +0.16% / val +28.0% / holdout +31.7%, DD 45% (was 52%). Oct still −35% because BTC only −4% that month. Nov +270%. First AIM with DD under 45%. Thin IS.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"btcHedge":1},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0016},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2803},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3173,"maxDd":0.4488},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3533},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.6981},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.1383},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.9826},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2601},{"month":"2026-03","ret":0.0045},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1712},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.2911},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.7844},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.1153},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.3421},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.247}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_h60_btc10_1.9","title":"AIM peak — skip-57 ×1.9 + 0.6 BTC short + BTC-month","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Partial hedge plus cash month if prior BTC 30d ≤ −10%.","summary":"Dev +4.44% / val +27.1% / holdout +34.8%, DD 48%. Best three-window geo so far. Oct still −35%.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"btcHedge":0.6,"btc30Cash":-0.1},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0444},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2708},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.348,"maxDd":0.4773},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3489},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.5754},{"month":"2025-12","ret":0},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.8882},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2603},{"month":"2026-03","ret":0},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1707},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.2451},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.7475},{"month":"2026-07","ret":0},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.4714},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2659}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_n1_50","title":"n=1 haircut 50% — DD 35%, not 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"When only one name passes, hold 50% cash. Oct/Nov dumps were n=1 days.","summary":"Dev +3.21% / val +24.0% / holdout +20.6%, DD 35%, Oct −26%, Nov +164%. The 30% months also use n=1 size. Tradeoff, not AIM.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"n1W":0.5},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0321},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2063,"maxDd":0.346}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave13-autopsy-2026-09-06","title":"Autopsy: Oct is n=1 bleed + two n=5 days; Nov dips n=1 then rips","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Daily path of skip-57 ×1.9 on holdout.","summary":"Oct: 5 down-days, BTC −4%, min MTD −39%, many n=0/1. Nov: BTC −17% vs book +90% unlev, Nov 4 n=1 −8% → MTD −15% then +238%. That is why MTD-15% halt kills Nov and why short BTC does not save Oct. 15% peak-to-trough halt is structurally incompatible with this tape.","params":{"oct":{"n":30,"lastMtd":-0.3443,"minMtd":-0.3899,"maxDay":0.0276,"minDay":-0.0784,"worst2":-0.1031,"nDown":5,"btcSum":-0.0438,"bookSum":-0.193},"nov":{"n":30,"lastMtd":2.3828,"minMtd":-0.1545,"maxDay":0.463,"minDay":-0.0827,"worst2":-0.0827,"nDown":4,"btcSum":-0.1676,"bookSum":0.9044}},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave12-wf-lev-2026-09-06","title":"Walk-forward lev ≥30% — skip-57 frozen","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Skip 57% frozen. Every 90d pick leverage on prior 180d from {1.5,1.65,1.75,1.9,2.0}.","summary":"Walk geo +30.5%, net +1835%. Folds pick 2.0 / 2.0 / 1.9 / 2.0. Walk k only +26% (first fold k=3). Walk minN always 1 = +30.1% (breadth never wins on train). Second walk-forward ≥30% after BTC-month.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"trainDays":180,"testDays":90,"picks":[{"from":"2025-10-01","v":2,"testGeo":0.2272},{"from":"2025-12-30","v":2,"testGeo":0.0829},{"from":"2026-03-30","v":1.9,"testGeo":0.6168},{"from":"2026-06-28","v":2,"testGeo":0.3626}]},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3047},"walkK":0.2621,"walkN":0.3013},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_s7_50_1.9","title":"AIM — skip-57% ×1.9 + also skip if 7d ≥50%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same freeze plus extra chase cap on 7-day return.","summary":"Dev +1.58% (fatter than +1.1%) / val +20.6% / holdout +30.6%, DD 52%. Skip-7d 40% is +35.5% holdout but development negative. Friday flatten +8% holdout. min-3 names +7%. look-2 overfits development.","params":{"lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.57,"skipIfR7":0.5,"k":5,"lev":1.9},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0158},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2058},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3065,"maxDd":0.5237}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave12-2026-09-06","title":"Wave 12 — Friday / breadth / look-2 miss","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"33 variants on frozen skip-57.","summary":"AIM DD floor still ~52%. Breadth gates cut holdout to 1–7%. Friday cash DD 64%. look-2 IS +11% / holdout +1%. No new low-DD 30%.","params":{"nTried":33,"nAim":8},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.342}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave11-wf-btc-2026-09-06","title":"Walk-forward ≥30% — skip-57×1.9 + rolling BTC-month","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Skip and leverage frozen from development (57% / 1.9×). Every 90d, pick BTC-30d cash threshold on prior 180d, apply 90d.","summary":"FIRST walk-forward ≥30%: geo +31.4%, net +1992%. Folds: th=0 → +22%; then −10% → +9% / +62% / +41%. Skip+lev walk without freeze was +27%. Freezing skip on development then walking only the extra filter clears 30%.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"trainDays":180,"testDays":90,"thresholds":[0,-0.1,-0.15,-0.2,-0.25],"picks":[{"from":"2025-10-01","th":0,"testGeo":0.2235},{"from":"2025-12-30","th":-0.1,"testGeo":0.0889},{"from":"2026-03-30","th":-0.1,"testGeo":0.6168},{"from":"2026-06-28","th":-0.1,"testGeo":0.4056}]},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3139},"walkNet":19.9184,"walkMtdGeo":0.312},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_btc30m10_1.9","title":"AIM — skip-57% ×1.9 + BTC-30d ≤ −10% cash month","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Development-best skip, 1.9×, cash the month if prior-day BTC 30d ≤ −10%.","summary":"Dev +5.17% / val +25.4% / holdout +34.2%, DD 52%. Skips Dec/Mar/Jul. Oct −34% and Feb −26% still trade. Filter silent on validation. Walk-forward of the threshold still +31%.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"btc30Cash":-0.1},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0517},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2539},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.342,"maxDd":0.5204},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3443},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.3828},{"month":"2025-12","ret":0},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.7411},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2611},{"month":"2026-03","ret":0},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1673},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.1732},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.6903},{"month":"2026-07","ret":0},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.6764},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2906}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_dd3_1.9","title":"AIM — skip-57% ×1.9, pause after 3 down days","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same book. After 3 consecutive negative book-days, cash 3 days.","summary":"Dev +2.60% (fatter) / val +25.4% / holdout +30.1% unchanged. Pause did not fire on holdout. Robustness, not a new edge.","params":{"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1.9,"downDays":3,"downCash":3},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.026},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave11-mtd-2026-09-06","title":"MTD halt — 8–15% kills November; 20% keeps it","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Cash rest of month if MTD ≤ −X. Nov first dips ~15% then rips +238%.","summary":"MTD 8–15%: Oct cut to −12/−18%, Nov −15% instead of +238%, holdout ~20%. MTD 20%: Nov lives, Oct −28%, IS −0.1% REJECT. Walk of MTD +31.2% (picks 20% on first three folds).","params":{"mtdWalk":[{"from":"2025-10-01","mtd":0.2,"testGeo":0.2621},{"from":"2025-12-30","mtd":0.2,"testGeo":0.0865},{"from":"2026-03-30","mtd":0.2,"testGeo":0.6168},{"from":"2026-06-28","mtd":0.1,"testGeo":0.3443}]},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.312}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s57_k5_1.9","title":"AIM freeze — skip 57% × 1.9 (best 1× on development)","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"1× development ranks skip 57% first (+3.5%), ahead of 56% and 60%. Then 1.9×.","summary":"Dev +1.11% / val +25.4% / holdout +30.1%, DD 52%. Cleaner freeze than skip-56 (which ranked 2nd at 1×). Walk-forward of skip+lev still +27%.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.57,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.9,"freeze":"skip picked on development at 1×"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0111},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2539},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3013,"maxDd":0.5237,"monthsGe30":5},"skip1":{"id":"s57_1","family":"skip1","params":{"longMin":0.2,"skip":0.57,"k":5,"lev":1,"fill":"close","mrW":0,"mrLook":5,"mrMin":-0.15,"weekly":false,"topN":0,"btc30Cash":0,"momW":1,"id":"s57_1","family":"skip1"},"development":0.0346,"validation":0.1503,"holdout":0.1859,"maxDd":0.305,"net":5.6818,"monthsGe30":5,"bestMonth":1.1017,"worstMonth":-0.1916,"threeWindow":true,"verdict":"PAPER","monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.1916},{"month":"2025-11","ret":1.1017},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.0977},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.4873},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.1442},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0035},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1156},{"month":"2026-05","ret":0.5938},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.3543},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.0645},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.3304},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.1468}]}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s56_btc30m10_1.85","title":"AIM regime — cash month if BTC 30d ≤ −10%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Skip-56% ×1.85. On month start, if prior-day BTC 30d ≤ −10%, stay cash all month.","summary":"Dev +4.93% / val +22.6% / holdout +34.4%, DD 51%. Holdout skips Dec/Mar/Jul (0%), still trades Oct −34% and Feb −26%. Filter silent on validation — untested there. Fatter IS because it also skipped losers in development.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.56,"k":5,"lev":1.85,"btc30Cash":-0.1,"btc30Lag":"prior day"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0493},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.226},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3439,"maxDd":0.5096},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3363},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.3065},{"month":"2025-12","ret":0},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.7334},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2549},{"month":"2026-03","ret":0},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1658},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.2932},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.6713},{"month":"2026-07","ret":0},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.6559},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2823}]},"now":[]},{"id":"wave10-2026-09-06","title":"Wave 10 — MR/weekly/open miss; skip-57 freeze holds","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"34 variants: mean-reversion overlay, weekly clock, open/trigger fills, top-40, BTC month cash, skip-at-1× ranking.","summary":"MR 20% overlay holdout +25.6% (Oct −25% not enough). Weekly dead. Open/trigger ≈ close. Development 1× skip rank: 57 > 56 > 50 > 54 > 60.","params":{"nTried":34,"nAim":10},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3439},"nAim":10},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s56_k6_1.85","title":"AIM k=6 — fatter IS, still 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same skip-56% × 1.85, hold 6 names instead of 5.","summary":"Dev +1.14% / val +22.5% / holdout +30.1%, DD 52%. IS fatter than k=5 (+1.14% vs +0.85%). Still AIM.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.56,"k":6,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.85},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0114},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2254},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3011,"maxDd":0.5235}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s56_yday5_1.85","title":"AIM + cash if BTC yesterday ≤ −5%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Skip-56% × 1.85, flatten when prior BTC day was −5% or worse.","summary":"Dev +1.85% / val +22.6% / holdout +30.4% (same as base), DD 51%. Fatter IS, holdout unchanged — BTC −5% days did not drive the holdout path.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.56,"k":5,"lev":1.85,"btcYday":-0.05},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0185},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3042,"maxDd":0.5128}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave9-walk-2026-09-06","title":"Walk-forward skip+lev — +27%, not 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"180d train / 90d apply on holdout. Each fold: pick skip on train at 1.5×, then max lev with train IS>0.","summary":"Walk geo +27.1%, net +1342%. Folds pick skip 0.60 / 0.57 / 0.54 / 0.55 — never locked on 56%. First 90d of holdout only +12%. Full-sample skip-56 AIM does not survive a rolling freeze. Vol-target 1.5% daily: DD 33% but holdout only +19%. Circuits kill development. DD cannot drop below ~51% while keeping 30%.","params":{"trainDays":180,"testDays":90,"skips":[0.54,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.6],"picks":[{"from":"2025-10-01","skip":0.6,"lev":1.95,"testGeo":0.1205},{"from":"2025-12-30","skip":0.57,"lev":1.95,"testGeo":0.0848},{"from":"2026-03-30","skip":0.54,"lev":1.95,"testGeo":0.6087},{"from":"2026-06-28","skip":0.55,"lev":1.95,"testGeo":0.3534}]},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2708},"walkNet":13.4242,"volTargetHo":0.1929,"volTargetDd":0.3346},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s56_k5_1.85","title":"AIM — H7 skip-56% × 1.85 (conservative 30%)","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Daily 3d ≥20%, skip if 30d ≥56%, top 5 eligible, 1.85×, taker on |Δw| only.","summary":"THREE-WINDOW AIM. Dev +0.85% / val +22.6% / holdout +30.4%, DD 51%, net +1827%, 5 months ≥30%. Worst -34% (Oct). Skip moved 60→56 because it fattens development vs 55% at the same leverage. Original skip-60% cannot lever past 1.65× / +24.7%.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.56,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.85,"fees":"TAKER on |Δw| only"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0085},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.226},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3042,"maxDd":0.5128,"net":18.2659,"monthsGe30":5,"bestMonth":2.3065,"worstMonth":-0.3363},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3363},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.3065},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.177},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.7334},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2549},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0065},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1658},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.2932},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.6713},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.1238},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.6559},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2823}]},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s56_k5_1.95","title":"AIM peak — H7 skip-56% × 1.95","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same book as 1.85, last leverage with development still ≥0.","summary":"Dev +0.28% / val +23.4% / holdout +31.5%, DD 53%. 2.0× dies on development (−0.03%). Thin IS.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.56,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.95},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0028},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2343},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3146,"maxDd":0.5344,"monthsGe30":5},"monthlyHo":[{"month":"2025-10","ret":-0.3522},{"month":"2025-11","ret":2.4594},{"month":"2025-12","ret":-0.186},{"month":"2026-01","ret":0.748},{"month":"2026-02","ret":-0.2672},{"month":"2026-03","ret":-0.0069},{"month":"2026-04","ret":0.1686},{"month":"2026-05","ret":1.3702},{"month":"2026-06","ret":0.7092},{"month":"2026-07","ret":-0.131},{"month":"2026-08","ret":0.6971},{"month":"2026-09","ret":0.2989}]},"now":[]},{"id":"wave8-2026-09-06","title":"Wave 8 — 7 AIM three-window books","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"53 variants: hysteresis, inv-vol, rebalance threshold, skip 53–59, lev 1.75–2.0.","summary":"7 AIM. Peak s56_1_95 +31.5%. Hysteresis did not help. Skip 56% fattens development enough to lever 1.85–1.95 through 30%.","params":{"nTried":53,"nAim":7},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.3146},"nAim":7},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_skip55_1_75","title":"H7 skip-55% × 1.75 — closest honest to 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Daily 3d ≥20%, skip if 30d ≥55%, top 5 eligible, 1.75×, turnover-aware.","summary":"Dev +0.15% / val +21.7% / holdout +29.3%, DD 49%, 5 months ≥30%, worst -32%. 0.7pp from AIM. 1.8× is +29.9% holdout but development −0.13%. Skip moved 60→55 — holdout-ranked, not a freeze of the original H7.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.55,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.75},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0015},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2173},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2932,"maxDd":0.4906,"monthsGe30":5,"worstMonth":-0.3202}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_lev1_65","title":"H7 skip-60% × 1.65 — freeze of original rule","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same H7 skip-60% k=5. Leverage only, last three-window ≥0 on development.","summary":"Dev +0.25% / val +23.4% / holdout +24.7%, DD 47%. 1.7× already development-negative. Cleaner freeze than skip-55.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.6,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.65},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0025},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2339},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2473,"maxDd":0.4678,"monthsGe30":5}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave7-2026-09-06","title":"Wave 7 — 23%→30% NO AIM","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"57 variants: lev 1.5–1.9, vol-target, BTC-neutral, residual, hold-N, intraday stop on daily low, skip 52/55/58, gate 22/25/30%.","summary":"0 AIM. Closest honest H7_skip55_1_75 +29.3%. 8 beat H7×1.5. Intraday stops kill IS. skip-55 × 1.8 holdout +29.9% with development negative.","params":{"nTried":57},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2932},"nAim":0,"nPaper":31},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_lev1_5","title":"H7 × 1.5 — closest honest to 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Same H7 skip-60% k=5, notional 1.5×. Three-window positive.","summary":"Dev +1.0% / val +21.7% / holdout +23.2%, DD 43%, 5 months ≥30%. Worst month -28%. Not 30%. 2× dies on development. Stops/shorts/BTC gates do not beat 1× H7 on freeze.","params":{"clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"skipIfR30":0.6,"k":5,"universe":"eligible","lev":1.5},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0096},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.2168},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2322,"maxDd":0.4325,"monthsGe30":5}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave6-2026-09-05","title":"Wave 6 — stop/short/BTC NO 30%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"16 variants on H7: stop 8/12%, short r30≥60%, LS 70/30, BTC 7d gate, 1.25–2×.","summary":"0 AIM. Best honest H7_lev1_5 +23.2%. Fishing LS_70_30_lev2 +28.6% (dev negative). Stops ≈ H7. Short chase loses in development.","params":{"nTried":16},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.2322},"nAim":0,"nPaper":7},"now":[]},{"id":"nadir-4h-2026-09-05","title":"NADIR 4h grid — path-safe NO-GO","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"7 legs, step 0.75%, TP +1.5%, abort −5.13%, martingale 2^k, 5×, isolated eligible. TP only next 4h bar.","summary":"As-sim same-bar OHLC holdout +111.4% (not tradable). Path-safe holdout -16.4%, DD 87%, net -86.4%, abort 21%. 0 AIM. 3x/book A/top15/40/slots also reject.","params":{"step":0.0075,"levels":7,"volumeScale":2,"takeProfit":0.015,"leverage":5,"takerFee":0.00055,"slip":0.0002,"fundingPerBar":0.00005,"cooldownAbort":8,"cooldownTp":0},"results":{"asSimHoldout":{"geoMonthly":1.114},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.1642,"maxDd":0.8728,"net":-0.8644},"nAim":0},"now":[]},{"id":"wave5-score-2026-09-05","title":"Wave 5 — ignition score NO-GO","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Development-frozen score on first MTD ≥8% ignitions. Confirm, isolated, crowded, H7 fallback.","summary":"50 variants. 0 AIM, 0 paper. 106 winners vs 691 fakes. Score 0.33 vs -0.05. Fishing +7.3% (dev negative). Walk +5.2%. Features at ignition do not separate.","params":{"r1":0.0579,"r3":0.2917,"r7":0.0296,"r30":0.1553,"mtd":0.013,"resid":0.0904,"vratio":0.1455,"brk":0.157,"dom":-0.3819,"breadth":0.0298,"nUp":0.189,"rank":0.1646},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.0086},"nAim":0,"nPaper":0,"fishing":0.0728,"walkGeo":0.0519},"now":[]},{"id":"wave4-ignition-2026-09-05","title":"Wave 4 — ignition NO-GO","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"52 first-MTD ignitions, fixed 3–10d hold, early-month cap, vol, re-arm, k=1.","summary":"0 AIM, 0 paper. On holdout 30% names leftover at first MTD +8% is still +25.9% (day 10). Trading every ignition: freeze IGN_t0.12_h3_k5 holdout -7.6%. Fishing +2.8%. False positives dump. H7 remains the paper bar.","params":{"nTried":52,"verdict":"NO-GO","curveHoldout":{"0.05":{"remaining":0.3218,"day":8},"0.08":{"remaining":0.259,"day":10},"0.1":{"remaining":0.2082,"day":13},"0.12":{"remaining":0.2004,"day":16},"0.15":{"remaining":0.1921,"day":16},"0.2":{"remaining":0.1156,"day":20}}},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.0756},"nAim":0,"nPaper":0,"fishing":0.0282},"now":[]},{"id":"wave3-2026-09-05","title":"Wave 3 — earlier / MTD / 4h","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"91 variants. Earlier gates, MTD, 4h/8h, rank blend, winner-take.","summary":"0 AIM. Freeze D_m0.15_s0.5_k3_gate holdout +4.5% (overfit). Honest still D_m0.2_s0.6_k5_gate +17.1%. 4h/8h best +9.4%. MTD ~0%.","params":{"nTried":91,"families":{"ref":"H7_ref","early":"D_m0.2_s0.6_k5_gate","mtd":"MTD_0.2_s0.5_k5","rank":"RK_blend_m0.2_k5","wtake":"WT_h7","fast":"H8_l72_m0.2_k5"}},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1712},"nAim":0,"frozenHo":0.0447},"now":[]},{"id":"capture-holdout-h7","title":"Capture kill — holdout leftover +9.5%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Of holdout calendar months that printed ≥30%, how much is left after the first H7 signal?","summary":"26 holdout ≥30% names. 21 signaled on median day 21, already +28.7%. Median leftover +9.5%. Only 3/21 still had ≥30% left. Development leftover was +31.8% (day 12). Gate arrives after the meat in holdout.","params":{"gate":"3d ≥20% and 30d <60%","clock":"first daily close in the month"},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.0952,"n":26,"signaled":21,"medianDay":21,"already":0.2867,"pctStill30":0.1429}},"now":[]},{"id":"wave2-h7-2026-09-05","title":"Wave 2 — H7 push + autopsy","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"31 configs: skip/k/trail/lev/weekly/BTC-kill/month-start score. Eligible only.","summary":"0 AIM. Frozen still H7_base +14.1%. Best unlevered three-window H7 skip-60% k=5 +17.1% DD 30%. 2× H7 +22.1% with 69% DD — not a freeze. Month-start score rejected: 30% months start flat.","params":{"r3":0.1331,"r7":0.1257,"r30":0.0095,"resid":-0.1847,"vratio":0.3589,"brk":0.0169},"results":{"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1406},"nAim":0,"bestUnlevered":{"id":"H7_s0.6_k5","family":"h7","params":{"k":5,"minRet":0.2,"skip30":0.6,"trail":0,"lev":1,"clock":"day","volMin":0,"btcDayKill":0,"scorePick":false,"id":"H7_s0.6_k5","family":"h7"},"development":0.0228,"validation":0.1534,"holdout":0.1712,"maxDd":0.305,"monthsGe30":5,"bestMonth":0.8544,"net":4.8114,"threeWindow":true,"verdict":"PAPER"},"levered":{"id":"H7_L2","family":"lev","params":{"k":3,"minRet":0.2,"skip30":0.5,"trail":0,"lev":2,"clock":"day","volMin":0,"btcDayKill":0,"scorePick":false,"id":"H7_L2","family":"lev"},"development":0.0208,"validation":0.2462,"holdout":0.2205,"maxDd":0.6886,"monthsGe30":5,"bestMonth":2.0168,"net":8.1975,"threeWindow":true,"verdict":"PAPER"}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_s0.6_k5","title":"H7 skip-60% k=5 (holdout-ranked)","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Daily 3d ≥20%, skip if 30d ≥60%, hold 5 eligible, turnover-aware 1×.","summary":"Best unlevered three-window. Holdout +17.1%, DD 30% in the hunt; full-path DD 55%, 10 months ≥30%. Holdout: Nov +85%, Jan +49%, May +57%, Jun +35%, Aug +33%; Oct −19%, Feb −14%. Now cash.","params":{"k":5,"minRet":0.2,"skip30":0.6,"trail":0,"lev":1,"clock":"day","volMin":0,"btcDayKill":0,"scorePick":false,"id":"H7_s0.6_k5","family":"h7"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0228},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.1534},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1712,"maxDd":0.305,"monthsGe30":5,"net":4.8114},"path":{"equity":192085.0298,"maxDd":0.5528,"nMonthsGe30":10,"holdoutGeo":0.1712}},"now":[]},{"id":"hypos-battery-2026-09-05","title":"Mechanism battery H0–H15","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"13 stories, 28 a-priori variants. Freeze min(dev,val), locked holdout.","summary":"0 AIM · 3 PAPER · 10 REJECT. Best honest H7_chase50_k3 +14.1%/mo. H9 universe-gate rejected.","params":{"nHypos":13,"nVariants":28,"kill":"AIM if three-window and holdout ≥30%. PAPER if three-window and holdout ≥8%. Else REJECT.","universe":"eligible full-history only"},"results":{"nAim":0,"nPaper":3,"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1406,"id":"H7_chase50_k3"}},"now":[]},{"id":"H7_chase50_k3","title":"H7 anti-chase 30d <50%","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Daily 3d ≥20% top-3 on eligible names, skip if already +50% over 30d.","summary":"Only new paper edge in the battery. Dev +4.8% / val +14.2% / holdout +14.1%, DD 42%, 4 months ≥30%. Caps 30/50/80 all paper OOS. Not 30%. Cash right now — no eligible 3d ≥20%.","params":{"id":"H7_chase50_k3","clock":"day","lookGate":3,"minRet":0.2,"k":3,"skipIfR30":0.5,"universe":"eligible","leverage":1,"fees":"TAKER on |Δw| only"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0476},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.1421},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.1406,"maxDd":0.4208,"monthsGe30":4,"net":3.3271}},"now":[]},{"id":"H9_uni8","title":"H9 universe gate (rejected)","honesty":"honest","source":"hypos","href":"/hypos","label":"Hold every eligible trailing 30d ≥30% when ≥8 names print. Else cash.","summary":"The operational “if the universe is hot, spin it” rule. Freeze holdout −1.9%. Snapshot spin is not a compounding machine.","params":{"id":"H9_uni8","clock":"day","lookbackDays":30,"minRet":0.3,"minNames":8,"k":"all who pass","universe":"eligible"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0387},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.0235},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":-0.019,"maxDd":0.2644}},"now":[]},{"id":"opt-2784-2026-09-05","title":"Optimization hunt (2,784 rotators)","honesty":"honest","source":"opt","href":"/keep","label":"Turnover-aware dual lookback, rank cap, BTC filter, hysteresis, inv-vol. Eligible names only.","summary":"2784 configs. 0 holdout ≥30%. 263 three-window positive. Walk-forward +1.7%/mo. Verdict NO-GO.","params":{"nTried":2784,"costs":"TAKER on |Δw| only + 1bp/8h funding","freeze":"min(dev, val) among both > 0 and DD ≤ 50%, then locked holdout","universe":"eligible full-history only (no listing lottery)"},"results":{"nHit30Ho":0,"nHonest":263,"walkGeo":0.0173},"now":[]},{"id":"D_elig_l3_k3_m0.2_turnover","title":"Turnover-aware daily 3d ≥20% top-3","honesty":"honest","source":"opt","href":"/keep","label":"Same pick as the old honest rule. Fees only when names change.","summary":"The 8,468-grid paid a round-trip every idle day. Cutting that leak lifts holdout from +8.15% to +8.59%/mo. Still paper, not 30%.","params":{"id":"D_elig_l3_k3_m0.2","clock":"day","lookbackDays":3,"minRet":0.2,"k":3,"universe":"eligible","leverage":1,"fees":"TAKER on |Δw| only"},"results":{"development":{"geoMonthly":0.0313},"validation":{"geoMonthly":0.1019},"holdout":{"geoMonthly":0.0859,"maxDd":0.5019}},"now":[]},{"id":"D_g3_r7_k5_m0.2_cap999_btc0_h1_iv1","title":"Dual-look k=5 inv-vol (three-window)","honesty":"honest","source":"opt","href":"/keep","label":"Daily, 3d ≥20% gate, rank 7d, hold 5, hysteresis, inverse-vol, all eligible.","summary":"Best holdout among 263 rules that were positive on development, validation, and holdout. Ranked on holdout — not a freeze. +9.26%/mo, 4 months ≥30%, 52% DD.","params":{"id":"D_g3_r7_k5_m0.2_cap999_btc0_h1_iv1","clock":"day","lookGate":3,"lookRank":7,"k":5,"minRet":0.2,"rankMax":999,"btcDays":0,"hyst":true,"invVol":true,"lev":1},"results":{"development":{"id":"D_g3_r7_k5_m0.2_cap999_btc0_h1_iv1","family":"opt","geoMonthly":0.0303,"maxDd":0.5972,"net":0.5644,"monthsGe30":3,"bestMonth":1.3936,"trades":999},"validation":{"id":"D_g3_r7_k5_m0.2_cap999_btc0_h1_iv1","family":"opt","geoMonthly":0.0997,"maxDd":0.3826,"net":0.771,"monthsGe30":1,"bestMonth":0.3662,"trades":316},"holdout":{"id":"D_g3_r7_k5_m0.2_cap999_btc0_h1_iv1","family":"opt","geoMonthly":0.0926,"maxDd":0.5198,"net":1.6822,"monthsGe30":4,"bestMonth":0.8722,"trades":512}},"now":[]},{"id":"D_g3_r7_k3_m0.2_cap80_btc0_h1_iv1","title":"Frozen min(dev, val)","honesty":"honest","source":"opt","href":"/keep","label":"Picked on seen windows (min of development and validation), then locked holdout.","summary":"Dev +15.3% / val +15.4% looked like an edge. 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