{
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T17:21:47.902Z",
  "asOfMs": 1788566400000,
  "question": "Do remaining mechanism hypotheses (volume, breadth, residual, anti-chase, fade, z, breakout, LS) print 30%/mo on the eligible book after a freeze?",
  "protocol": {
    "universe": "eligible full-history only",
    "freeze": "per hypothesis, variant with max min(dev,val) among both > 0, then locked holdout",
    "costs": "TAKER on |\u0394w| only + 1bp/8h funding, 1\u00d7",
    "kill": "AIM if three-window and holdout \u226530%. PAPER if three-window and holdout \u22658%. Else REJECT."
  },
  "kpis": {
    "nHypos": 13,
    "nVariants": 28,
    "nAim": 0,
    "nPaper": 3,
    "nReject": 10,
    "bestHoId": "H7_chase50_k3",
    "bestHoGeo": 0.1406,
    "bestHonestId": "H7_chase50_k3",
    "bestHonestGeo": 0.1406,
    "aim": 0.3,
    "paperBar": 0.08,
    "verdict": "PAPER"
  },
  "hypos": [
    {
      "id": "H0",
      "title": "Baseline 3d \u226520% top-3",
      "claim": "Continuation of a 3-day rip, equal-weight.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": "H0_base_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H0_base_k3",
        "development": 0.0313,
        "validation": 0.1019,
        "holdout": 0.0858,
        "maxDd": 0.5018,
        "monthsGe30": 4,
        "net": 1.5017
      },
      "fishingId": "H0_base_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0858,
      "verdict": "PAPER",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H0_base_k3",
          "title": "Baseline 3d \u226520% top-3",
          "development": 0.0313,
          "validation": 0.1019,
          "holdout": 0.0858,
          "maxDd": 0.5018,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        },
        {
          "id": "H0_base_k5",
          "title": "Baseline 3d \u226520% top-5",
          "development": 0.0191,
          "validation": 0.0895,
          "holdout": 0.0815,
          "maxDd": 0.5018,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H4",
      "title": "Volume confirms the rip",
      "claim": "3d \u226520% and volume \u22651.5\u00d7 20d mean.",
      "nVariants": 3,
      "freezeId": "H4_vol_1.5_k5",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H4_vol_1.5_k5",
        "development": 0.033,
        "validation": 0.1213,
        "holdout": 0.0508,
        "maxDd": 0.5407,
        "monthsGe30": 4,
        "net": 0.7364
      },
      "fishingId": "H4_vol_1.5_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0586,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H4_vol_1.5_k3",
          "title": "Volume confirms the rip",
          "development": 0.0319,
          "validation": 0.1262,
          "holdout": 0.0586,
          "maxDd": 0.5309,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H4_vol_2_k3",
          "title": "Volume confirms (2\u00d7)",
          "development": 0.0003,
          "validation": 0.1183,
          "holdout": 0.0491,
          "maxDd": 0.4567,
          "monthsGe30": 3,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H4_vol_1.5_k5",
          "title": "Volume confirms, k=5",
          "development": 0.033,
          "validation": 0.1213,
          "holdout": 0.0508,
          "maxDd": 0.5407,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H5",
      "title": "Breadth gate \u22658",
      "claim": "Only when \u22658 names are up 10% / 3d.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": "H5_br12_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H5_br12_k3",
        "development": 0.0836,
        "validation": 0.0803,
        "holdout": 0.0213,
        "maxDd": 0.2739,
        "monthsGe30": 0,
        "net": 0.2651
      },
      "fishingId": "H5_br8_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0311,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H5_br8_k3",
          "title": "Breadth gate \u22658",
          "development": 0.0719,
          "validation": 0.0418,
          "holdout": 0.0311,
          "maxDd": 0.2739,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H5_br12_k3",
          "title": "Breadth gate \u226512",
          "development": 0.0836,
          "validation": 0.0803,
          "holdout": 0.0213,
          "maxDd": 0.2739,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H6",
      "title": "BTC residual \u226510%",
      "claim": "Rank by 3d minus BTC 3d.",
      "nVariants": 3,
      "freezeId": "H6_resid_0.2_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H6_resid_0.2_k3",
        "development": 0.0411,
        "validation": 0.1885,
        "holdout": 0.0217,
        "maxDd": 0.6217,
        "monthsGe30": 2,
        "net": 0.2705
      },
      "fishingId": "H6_resid_0.2_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0217,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H6_resid_0.1_k3",
          "title": "BTC residual \u226510%",
          "development": -0.0189,
          "validation": 0.0091,
          "holdout": -0.0202,
          "maxDd": 0.7538,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H6_resid_0.2_k3",
          "title": "BTC residual \u226520%",
          "development": 0.0411,
          "validation": 0.1885,
          "holdout": 0.0217,
          "maxDd": 0.6217,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H6_resid_0.1_k5",
          "title": "BTC residual \u226510% k=5",
          "development": -0.0303,
          "validation": 0.0181,
          "holdout": -0.0364,
          "maxDd": 0.7794,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H7",
      "title": "Anti-chase 30d <50%",
      "claim": "3d \u226520% but not already +50% / 30d.",
      "nVariants": 3,
      "freezeId": "H7_chase50_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H7_chase50_k3",
        "development": 0.0476,
        "validation": 0.1421,
        "holdout": 0.1406,
        "maxDd": 0.4208,
        "monthsGe30": 4,
        "net": 3.3271
      },
      "fishingId": "H7_chase50_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.1406,
      "verdict": "PAPER",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H7_chase50_k3",
          "title": "Anti-chase 30d <50%",
          "development": 0.0476,
          "validation": 0.1421,
          "holdout": 0.1406,
          "maxDd": 0.4208,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        },
        {
          "id": "H7_chase80_k3",
          "title": "Anti-chase 30d <80%",
          "development": 0.0327,
          "validation": 0.0983,
          "holdout": 0.1396,
          "maxDd": 0.3609,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        },
        {
          "id": "H7_chase30_k3",
          "title": "Anti-chase 30d <30%",
          "development": 0.011,
          "validation": 0.018,
          "holdout": 0.1246,
          "maxDd": 0.3539,
          "monthsGe30": 3,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H8",
      "title": "Fade last month\u2019s winner",
      "claim": "Short the eligible name that won the prior month.",
      "nVariants": 1,
      "freezeId": "H8_fade",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H8_fade",
        "development": 0.0251,
        "validation": 0.0424,
        "holdout": 0.0787,
        "maxDd": 0.4743,
        "monthsGe30": 2,
        "net": 1.3262
      },
      "fishingId": "H8_fade",
      "fishingHo": 0.0787,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H8_fade",
          "title": "Fade last month\u2019s winner",
          "development": 0.0251,
          "validation": 0.0424,
          "holdout": 0.0787,
          "maxDd": 0.4743,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H9",
      "title": "Universe gate \u22655 names",
      "claim": "Hold every eligible 30d \u226530% when at least 5 print. Else cash.",
      "nVariants": 3,
      "freezeId": "H9_uni8",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H9_uni8",
        "development": 0.0387,
        "validation": 0.0235,
        "holdout": -0.019,
        "maxDd": 0.2644,
        "monthsGe30": 0,
        "net": -0.1928
      },
      "fishingId": "H9_uni8",
      "fishingHo": -0.019,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H9_uni5",
          "title": "Universe gate \u22655 names",
          "development": 0.0387,
          "validation": 0,
          "holdout": -0.0546,
          "maxDd": 0.5125,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H9_uni8",
          "title": "Universe gate \u22658 names",
          "development": 0.0387,
          "validation": 0.0235,
          "holdout": -0.019,
          "maxDd": 0.2644,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H9_uni3",
          "title": "Universe gate \u22653 names",
          "development": 0.045,
          "validation": -0.091,
          "holdout": -0.0838,
          "maxDd": 0.6731,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H10",
      "title": "Cross-section z \u2265 1",
      "claim": "3d return z-score vs the book.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": "H10_z1_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H10_z1_k3",
        "development": 0.0227,
        "validation": 0.1231,
        "holdout": -0.013,
        "maxDd": 0.7299,
        "monthsGe30": 3,
        "net": -0.1358
      },
      "fishingId": "H10_z1.5_k3",
      "fishingHo": -0.0022,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H10_z1_k3",
          "title": "Cross-section z \u2265 1",
          "development": 0.0227,
          "validation": 0.1231,
          "holdout": -0.013,
          "maxDd": 0.7299,
          "monthsGe30": 3,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H10_z1.5_k3",
          "title": "Cross-section z \u2265 1.5",
          "development": 0.0057,
          "validation": 0.1519,
          "holdout": -0.0022,
          "maxDd": 0.7111,
          "monthsGe30": 3,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H11",
      "title": "20d breakout + 3d \u226510%",
      "claim": "Close above prior 20d high and still ripping.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": null,
      "freeze": null,
      "fishingId": "H11_don20_m20_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0225,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H11_don20_k3",
          "title": "20d breakout + 3d \u226510%",
          "development": -0.0276,
          "validation": 0.2327,
          "holdout": 0.0058,
          "maxDd": 0.5138,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H11_don20_m20_k3",
          "title": "20d breakout + 3d \u226520%",
          "development": -0.0194,
          "validation": 0.1168,
          "holdout": 0.0225,
          "maxDd": 0.3656,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H12",
      "title": "Vol expansion",
      "claim": "3d \u226520% only if 20d vol \u2265 book median.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": "H12_volhi_k3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H12_volhi_k3",
        "development": 0.0441,
        "validation": 0.0993,
        "holdout": 0.0858,
        "maxDd": 0.5018,
        "monthsGe30": 4,
        "net": 1.5017
      },
      "fishingId": "H12_volhi_k3",
      "fishingHo": 0.0858,
      "verdict": "PAPER",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H12_volhi_k3",
          "title": "Vol expansion",
          "development": 0.0441,
          "validation": 0.0993,
          "holdout": 0.0858,
          "maxDd": 0.5018,
          "monthsGe30": 4,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "PAPER"
        },
        {
          "id": "H12_vollo_k3",
          "title": "Vol compression",
          "development": -0.0339,
          "validation": 0.0467,
          "holdout": 0.0123,
          "maxDd": 0.1261,
          "monthsGe30": 1,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H13",
      "title": "Long-short residual k=3",
      "claim": "Long top-3 residual, short bottom-3.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": "H13_ls3",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H13_ls3",
        "development": 0.0013,
        "validation": 0.0041,
        "holdout": 0.055,
        "maxDd": 0.2971,
        "monthsGe30": 0,
        "net": 0.8152
      },
      "fishingId": "H13_ls3",
      "fishingHo": 0.055,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H13_ls3",
          "title": "Long-short residual k=3",
          "development": 0.0013,
          "validation": 0.0041,
          "holdout": 0.055,
          "maxDd": 0.2971,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H13_ls5",
          "title": "Long-short residual k=5",
          "development": 0.0085,
          "validation": -0.006,
          "holdout": 0.0389,
          "maxDd": 0.225,
          "monthsGe30": 0,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H14",
      "title": "First 10 days of month",
      "claim": "Baseline only on UTC days 1\u201310.",
      "nVariants": 2,
      "freezeId": null,
      "freeze": null,
      "fishingId": "H14_early",
      "fishingHo": 0.0637,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H14_early",
          "title": "First 10 days of month",
          "development": -0.0049,
          "validation": 0.149,
          "holdout": 0.0637,
          "maxDd": 0.4743,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        },
        {
          "id": "H14_late",
          "title": "Last third of month",
          "development": 0.0178,
          "validation": -0.0021,
          "holdout": 0.045,
          "maxDd": 0.4311,
          "monthsGe30": 2,
          "threeWindow": false,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "H15",
      "title": "Persist yesterday\u2019s names",
      "claim": "Keep only names still \u226520% / 3d that were already held.",
      "nVariants": 1,
      "freezeId": "H15_persist",
      "freeze": {
        "id": "H15_persist",
        "development": 0.0401,
        "validation": 0.155,
        "holdout": 0.0387,
        "maxDd": 0.5821,
        "monthsGe30": 3,
        "net": 0.5266
      },
      "fishingId": "H15_persist",
      "fishingHo": 0.0387,
      "verdict": "REJECT",
      "variants": [
        {
          "id": "H15_persist",
          "title": "Persist yesterday\u2019s names",
          "development": 0.0401,
          "validation": 0.155,
          "holdout": 0.0387,
          "maxDd": 0.5821,
          "monthsGe30": 3,
          "threeWindow": true,
          "verdict": "REJECT"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "elapsedMs": 1996
}